Sunday 8 November 2026
26 individual picks · kick-off times are shown in Ghana time (GMT).
Kick-off times are shown in Ghana time (GMT).
Odds as at 8 Nov 2026 and may change.
Verified daily rows, 11–22 Oct: 71W-49L-3V (59.2%).
12 Oct: 12W–5L reported on the night; individual rows not reconstructed; not included in the totals.
17–18 Oct singles and 23–30 Oct: NOT RECORDED.
19 Oct: the source dash is counted as 0 voids.
31 Oct, separately: 2W-5L-0V.
1 Nov, separately: 0W-1L-0V.
2 Nov, separately: 4W-3L-0V.
All recorded days: 77W-58L-3V.
Saturday 31 Oct · 15 files · 7 price-qualified: 2W–5L–0V · 8 no-action · all times GMT
Chelsea v Manchester United · Premier League R13
Chelsea 1.90 · model fair ≈1.96
The early TV game priced correctly: the models put Chelsea at about 51% (fair 1.96), the boards stand at 1.90, and nothing above the truth is on offer either side. A showpiece to watch, not a door to buy.
◻ NO STAMP · priced to truth
AC Milan v Inter · Serie A R10 · Derby della Madonnina
Inter 2.00–2.05 · model fair ≈2.08
Milan carry an eight-derby unbeaten streak yet trail on every season number (Inter 25 scored against their 18). The market weighs the streak properly: Inter 2.00–2.05 against a 48% model read, Milan’s 2.40 taxed. Truth at the truth’s price, both ways.
◻ NO STAMP · derby priced honest
Levante v Atlético Madrid · LaLiga R11
Atlético ML 1.55–1.60 · fair ≈1.70
Atlético read near 59% true and the world answers 1.55–1.60, a straight ten percent toll on the day’s loudest away name (dimers fair 1.70). Corridor ≥1.70 or the badge gets paid for and the value bought by the house.
🚩 ML TAX · corridor ≥1.70
Manchester City v Brighton · Premier League R13
City ML 1.70–1.72 · fair ≈1.62
The 15:00 flagship. The models rate City at about 62% (fair 1.62) against Brighton’s travelling file, and the boards still pay 1.70–1.72: five clear points of payment above the price (dimers edge +3.9%). threshold: full-strength sheet at 14:00.
⚡⚡ FLAGSHIP · CITY ML ≥1.70
KV Mechelen v KRC Genk · Pro League
O2.5 1.70 · fair ≈1.54–1.67
A goals league feeding itself: Belgium averages 3.19 a game, the models sit 58–65% on three or more (goalshunter 65%, protipster 58% with two Mechelen blanks held against it), and seven of the last ten meetings cleared the line. The world pays 1.70, at or above every fair line.
⚡ OVER 2.5 ≥1.65
Fredrikstad v Rosenborg · Eliteserien
O2.5 1.57 · fair ≈1.61–1.75
The models argue with each other: statz reads 57% (fair 1.75), statsultra reads 62% (fair 1.61), so the 1.57 screens pay below the truth on one file and near it on the other. When the files quarrel, the corridor settles it: ≥1.70 or nothing.
🚩 SPLIT DESK · corridor ≥1.70
Coventry City v Sunderland · Premier League R13
Sunderland ML 2.40–2.46 · fair ≈2.20
Coventry’s home badge does the talking on the screens while the file reads the visitors near 45% (fair 2.20). The world pays 2.40–2.46, a thick lane above the line (dimers edge +3.9%). Dog money, honestly bought.
⭐ SUNDERLAND ≥2.40
Hull City v Ipswich Town · Premier League R13
Hull ML 2.73–2.82 · fair ≈2.38
The models’ loudest edge of the card: Hull at 42% (fair 2.38) with the boards paying 2.73–2.82, a 6.5-point edge in a home game the market reads as a toss-up. Corridor ≥2.75 keeps the edge fat after any late shave.
⭐ HULL ML ≥2.75
SCR Altach v SV Ried · Austrian Bundesliga
O2.5 1.62–1.67 · fair ≈1.55
Austria’s goal factory: Altach’s games cleared the line in eight of nine, Ried have both scored and conceded in eleven of twelve with 2.5 scored and 2.0 leaked a game away. Models land 65% (fair 1.55), the boards pay 1.62–1.67. Value on volume.
⚡ OVER 2.5 ≥1.60
Kifisia v Olympiacos · Greek Super League R9
O1.5 1.30 · fair ≈1.22–1.28
An under-tenor game played as a floor, not a goal hunt: Olympiacos have kept it under 2.5 in ten of eleven, Kifisia under three in ten of eleven at home. Two goals still lands near eight times in ten on these files; 1.30 is the honest floor, banker size only, nothing under 1.28.
⚡-LITE O1.5 FLOOR 1.30
Aalesund v Sandefjord · Eliteserien
BTTS-Yes 1.42–1.44 · fair ≈1.41
Both-score calls at 71% against a 1.41 fair, and the boards pay exactly 1.42–1.44: the sticker price the truth already wrote. League-backed noise (60% Eliteserien both-score) is not an edge, so the desk passes politely.
◻ NO STAMP · face value
Tottenham v Crystal Palace · Premier League R13
Spurs 1.58–1.60 · model fair ≈1.64
Spurs deserve favouritism (61% on the model, Palace +525 on the moneyline) but 1.58–1.60 sits a touch under the 1.64 fair. Corridor ≥1.65 if the afternoon drifts our way; at the morning print it is the public’s price, not ours.
◻ NO STAMP · light tax
Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga · Der Klassiker
BTTS-Yes 1.45–1.47 · model fair ≈1.56
The Klassiker runs to an expected four goals with the over floored at 1.25–1.27 (77% true, tax included). The clean lane is both-score: ~64% model, fair 1.56, morning boards 1.45–1.47. Stamped only at ≥1.55; Kobel’s five clean sheets are the one honest warning.
⭐ BTTS CORRIDOR ≥1.55
SK Beveren v Union Saint-Gilloise · Pro League
USG ML 1.48–1.52 · fair ≈1.35
The cleanest file of the day. The models give Union about 74% (xG split 2.6 against 0.8, fair 1.35) and the boards pay 1.48–1.52: the rare banker priced above its own truth. Beveren’s 6.26 home price says the market knows.
⭐⭐ FLAGSHIP · USG ML ≥1.48
Anderlecht v Westerlo · Pro League
ML 1.57 · O2.5 1.45 · fair 1.67 / 1.52
Both doors taxed at Lotto Park this morning: the models hand Anderlecht 60% (ML fair 1.67 against the 1.57 screen) and the game 66% over (O2.5 fair 1.52 against the 1.45 offered). Westerlo’s file is not brittle; the favourite pays its own crowd. Corridors printed, nothing taken.
🚩 DOUBLE TOLL · ML ≥1.65, O2.5 ≥1.55
| Kick | Fixture · Comp | Board 1·X·2 | The desk file | Stamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Chelsea v Manchester UnitedPremier League R13 | Chelsea 1.90 · model fair ≈1.96 | The early TV game priced correctly: the models put Chelsea at about 51% (fair 1.96), the boards stand at 1.90, and nothing above the truth is on offer either side. A showpiece to watch, not a door to buy. | ◻ NO STAMP · priced to truth— NO BET · FT 2–0 (no stamp) |
| 12:45 | AC Milan v InterSerie A R10 · Derby della Madonnina | Inter 2.00–2.05 · model fair ≈2.08 | Milan carry an eight-derby unbeaten streak yet trail on every season number (Inter 25 scored against their 18). The market weighs the streak properly: Inter 2.00–2.05 against a 48% model read, Milan’s 2.40 taxed. Truth at the truth’s price, both ways. | ◻ NO STAMP · derby priced honest— NO BET · FT 3–1 (no stamp) |
| 13:00 | Levante v Atlético MadridLaLiga R11 | Atlético ML 1.55–1.60 · fair ≈1.70 | Atlético read near 59% true and the world answers 1.55–1.60, a straight ten percent toll on the day’s loudest away name (dimers fair 1.70). Corridor ≥1.70 or the badge gets paid for and the value bought by the house. | 🚩 ML TAX · corridor ≥1.70— NO BET · FT 0–2 (≥1.70 corridor not reached) |
| 15:00 | Manchester City v BrightonPremier League R13 | City ML 1.70–1.72 · fair ≈1.62 | The 15:00 flagship. The models rate City at about 62% (fair 1.62) against Brighton’s travelling file, and the boards still pay 1.70–1.72: five clear points of payment above the price (dimers edge +3.9%). threshold: full-strength sheet at 14:00. | ⚡⚡ FLAGSHIP · CITY ML ≥1.70❌ LOST · FT 0–1 |
| 15:00 | KV Mechelen v KRC GenkPro League | O2.5 1.70 · fair ≈1.54–1.67 | A goals league feeding itself: Belgium averages 3.19 a game, the models sit 58–65% on three or more (goalshunter 65%, protipster 58% with two Mechelen blanks held against it), and seven of the last ten meetings cleared the line. The world pays 1.70, at or above every fair line. | ⚡ OVER 2.5 ≥1.65❌ LOST · FT 1–0 |
| 15:00 | Fredrikstad v RosenborgEliteserien | O2.5 1.57 · fair ≈1.61–1.75 | The models argue with each other: statz reads 57% (fair 1.75), statsultra reads 62% (fair 1.61), so the 1.57 screens pay below the truth on one file and near it on the other. When the files quarrel, the corridor settles it: ≥1.70 or nothing. | 🚩 SPLIT DESK · corridor ≥1.70— NO BET · FT 0–3 (price below ≥1.70 threshold) |
| 15:00 | Coventry City v SunderlandPremier League R13 | Sunderland ML 2.40–2.46 · fair ≈2.20 | Coventry’s home badge does the talking on the screens while the file reads the visitors near 45% (fair 2.20). The world pays 2.40–2.46, a thick lane above the line (dimers edge +3.9%). Dog money, honestly bought. | ⭐ SUNDERLAND ≥2.40❌ LOST · FT 3–1 |
| 15:00 | Hull City v Ipswich TownPremier League R13 | Hull ML 2.73–2.82 · fair ≈2.38 | The models’ loudest edge of the card: Hull at 42% (fair 2.38) with the boards paying 2.73–2.82, a 6.5-point edge in a home game the market reads as a toss-up. Corridor ≥2.75 keeps the edge fat after any late shave. | ⭐ HULL ML ≥2.75❌ LOST · FT 2–2 |
| 16:00 | SCR Altach v SV RiedAustrian Bundesliga | O2.5 1.62–1.67 · fair ≈1.55 | Austria’s goal factory: Altach’s games cleared the line in eight of nine, Ried have both scored and conceded in eleven of twelve with 2.5 scored and 2.0 leaked a game away. Models land 65% (fair 1.55), the boards pay 1.62–1.67. Value on volume. | ⚡ OVER 2.5 ≥1.60❌ LOST · FT 1–1 |
| 17:00 | Kifisia v OlympiacosGreek Super League R9 | O1.5 1.30 · fair ≈1.22–1.28 | An under-tenor game played as a floor, not a goal hunt: Olympiacos have kept it under 2.5 in ten of eleven, Kifisia under three in ten of eleven at home. Two goals still lands near eight times in ten on these files; 1.30 is the honest floor, banker size only, nothing under 1.28. | ⚡-LITE O1.5 FLOOR 1.30✅ WON · FT 2–3 |
| 17:00 | Aalesund v SandefjordEliteserien | BTTS-Yes 1.42–1.44 · fair ≈1.41 | Both-score calls at 71% against a 1.41 fair, and the boards pay exactly 1.42–1.44: the sticker price the truth already wrote. League-backed noise (60% Eliteserien both-score) is not an edge, so the desk passes politely. | ◻ NO STAMP · face value— NO BET · FT 3–4 (no stamp) |
| 17:30 | Tottenham v Crystal PalacePremier League R13 | Spurs 1.58–1.60 · model fair ≈1.64 | Spurs deserve favouritism (61% on the model, Palace +525 on the moneyline) but 1.58–1.60 sits a touch under the 1.64 fair. Corridor ≥1.65 if the afternoon drifts our way; at the morning print it is the public’s price, not ours. | ◻ NO STAMP · light tax— NO BET · FT 2–0 (below ≥1.65 corridor) |
| 17:30 | Bayern München v Borussia DortmundBundesliga · Der Klassiker | BTTS-Yes 1.45–1.47 · model fair ≈1.56 | The Klassiker runs to an expected four goals with the over floored at 1.25–1.27 (77% true, tax included). The clean lane is both-score: ~64% model, fair 1.56, morning boards 1.45–1.47. Stamped only at ≥1.55; Kobel’s five clean sheets are the one honest warning. | ⭐ BTTS CORRIDOR ≥1.55— NO BET · FT 2–2 (below ≥1.55 corridor) |
| 19:45 | SK Beveren v Union Saint-GilloisePro League | USG ML 1.48–1.52 · fair ≈1.35 | The cleanest file of the day. The models give Union about 74% (xG split 2.6 against 0.8, fair 1.35) and the boards pay 1.48–1.52: the rare banker priced above its own truth. Beveren’s 6.26 home price says the market knows. | ⭐⭐ FLAGSHIP · USG ML ≥1.48✅ WON · FT 1–2 |
| 19:45 | Anderlecht v WesterloPro League | ML 1.57 · O2.5 1.45 · fair 1.67 / 1.52 | Both doors taxed at Lotto Park this morning: the models hand Anderlecht 60% (ML fair 1.67 against the 1.57 screen) and the game 66% over (O2.5 fair 1.52 against the 1.45 offered). Westerlo’s file is not brittle; the favourite pays its own crowd. Corridors printed, nothing taken. | 🚩 DOUBLE TOLL · ML ≥1.65, O2.5 ≥1.55— NO BET · FT 4–1 (corridors not reached) |
VigDecoded is an independent fan-made project. Not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by any club or league. Club and league names appear for identification only. Badges are desk-made monogram marks, not official crests. Opinions, never guarantees. 18+.